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  • 29
    Apr
    2010
    2:17am, EDT

    Bracket argument: Top ACC team?

    For those dealing with post-March Madness blues, here's a something to pick up your spirits: An ACC all-time team tournament.

    The guys at SCACC hoops have done the seedings and set up the bracket. Is 1991-92 Duke better than 2001-02 Maryland? Would 1992-93 North Carolina take the '81-82 version?

    Let the arguments commence.

    They did have some guidelines, though. Using their game simulator, they set up seeding as follows:

    • Teams that have won a National Championship were given priority seeding.
    • The farther the team made it into the NCAA tournament, the higher the seed.
    • in cases of two similar teams, my judgment was used to rank the teams.

    A couple of restrictions were placed upon this...

    • only teams from the 1975-76 season going forward are available (this is due to the lack of data needed for our game simulator)
    • only teams that were part of the ACC are eligible
    • in a few cases, I placed the top team from another school over another Duke/UNC team since those schools had more selections
    • the 3 point shot is only available in simulations when both teams played by that rule during their season (specifically the 3 point shot was in play for the 1983 season and 1987 to present)

    Not enough, or just sick of the ACC? OK then.

    Use their game simulator to see how every team from the 2009-10 season would fare against one another … or any of those ACC teams. (But make sure you've got a few hours to burn…)

    For instance, I started having the 1998-99 Duke team play every school. That group with Trajan Langdon, Elton Brand, etc, was one of the best team I've seen in the last 20 years. How did they fare?

    Well, the Devils beat 09-10 versions of Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke. Yet somehow the the current Kansas team beat Duke.

    So I simulated it again. Another Kansas win. I did it five times until Kansas ended up beating Duke by 40. (No kidding!) Figured that was a good place to stop … but pushed my luck.

    Wanted to see how Northern Iowa fared against those old Devils.

    The Panthers lost by 33.

    Shoulda quit while I was ahead…

    Mike Miller's also on Twitter, usually talkin' hoops. Click here to follow him.

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  • 17
    Mar
    2010
    11:53pm, EDT

    Last-minute bracket advice

    Anyone who hasn't filled out a bracket yet – there's still time to sign up! – must be searching for an edge. Some bit of inside information that'll help them win that pool.

    Well, you're in luck.

    Just click this link and you're set. Copy down the results, turn it in and you'll have a bracket guaranteed to have some excellent picks and a few surprising ones.

    And if you don't trust that randomizer, not to worry. You can do it the old fashioned way – reading and stressing. Here are four links courtesy of the guys over at Basketball Prospectus. If you're looking for an inside edge, they're your best bet.

    Take the East preview. If you accept their log5 odds, 4-seed Wisconsin is the best bet to win the region, not 1-seed Kentucky or 2-seed West Virginia. Also of note, the Clemson-MissouriMarquette-Washington winner should beat 3-seed New Mexico, while the Marquette-Washington Clemson-Missouri game is a true coin flip.

    The Midwest is a little more chalk-esque. The regional final should be 1-seed Kansas beating 2-seed Ohio State, while 10-seed Georgia Tech is the only real upset coming. (Though SDSU-Tennessee is close enough for anyone willing to gamble.)

    As for the South, 1-seed Duke is a monster favorite. The Devils actually have slightly better odds to reach the Final Four than No. 1 overall seed Kansas. Anyone seeking first-round upsets should turn to Utah State over 5-seed Texas A&M and also think hard about 11-seed ODU beating Notre Dame. Purdue losing to 13-seed Siena isn't as sure of a thing.

    The West is up for grabs. Top seed Syracuse is the favorite, but 2-seed Kansas State and 7-seed BYU are both capable of getting to Indy. At worst, either could beat 3-seed Pitt – if the Panthers get by 6-seed Xavier. Also, don't overlook 5-seed Butler and 4-seedvandy losing in the first round.

    There you go. Four links that provide insight and lots to think about. Question is, do you have the guts to follow through?

    Mike Miller's also on Twitter, usually talkin' hoops. Click here for more.

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  • 9
    Mar
    2010
    2:46pm, EST

    A better bracket method?

    What's in a bracket?

    NCAA tournament projections weigh a variety of factors: won-loss record, strength of schedule, RPI, wins against quality teams and losses to bad teams.

    And that's just for starters. The seeding committee uses most of it as a guideline to determine the 35 best teams after all the automatic bids have been won. That's it. Sometime that means passing over teams with better résumés because of some other factor.

    But what if there was a more structured method to their madness? What if they simply had a formula that showed how teams fared against a standard schedule? Did they exceed expectations or fall short? That's where Vegas Watch comes in.

    This excellent post tries to sort out the noise from the useful info and comes up with a slightly different take on the field of 65. I say slightly because it's not too different from projections already out there, but there are things to note. I'll let him expain.

    I'd also prefer to be able to remove certain games, particularly to judge the resumes of certain teams that were missing their player of the year candidate for a significant stretch.

    To solve both these issues, I used the Pomeroy ratings to see what the expected record of a bubble team (I used Old Dominion, which isn't really on the bubble, especially after Monday night's win, but is 34th in Pomeroy, which is what I was looking for) would be against each potential tournament team's full schedule. We can get a baseline winning percentage from that; for example, ODU would be expected to win 75% of their games against Kentucky's schedule.

    From there, we can compare UK's actual winning percentage, .935, against that baseline. So the Wildcats' resume comes out as +0.186, 5.8 wins above expectation. I repeated this exercise for 63 teams with tournament aspirations, as well as three additional times: one looking at only Ohio St.'s games with Evan Turner, one looking at Wisconsin only when Leuer played, and a third excluding the one full game Kalin Lucas missed from Michigan St.'s schedule.

    So he's adjusting for when teams don't have certain players, how they performed in that time, etc.

    His No. 1 seeds: Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Kentucky. No. 2s: Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Villanova. Sounds about right, right? Well, give a look at his 4-11 seeds and note that FSU, Cornell, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech are all higher than most brackets.

    I can now think of four schools who might be in favor of tweaking the selection process…

    (H/T: Rush the Court)

    Mike Miller's also on Twitter, usually talkin' hoops. Click here for more.

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  • 27
    Feb
    2010
    6:00pm, EST

    Thoughts for future brackets

    As you sift through the results from Saturday's games and wonder how things will fall in March, give some thought to how the NCAA selection committee chooses its field of 65.

    All done? OK, now forget what you know for a bit and sift through some reading from some of the best and most original college basketball minds out there. It sounds like a random assignment from freshman psych, I know, but trust me. It'll be worth your while.

    Start with Dan Hanner's post on some of the things the committee considers, and what makes them important. He hits on RPI, last 12 games and closes with a section on margin of victory – which the NCAA doesn't use as a consideration.

    Then turn to John Gasaway. He hits on a few of the same ideas, and warns against relying too much on any one formula to determine the nation's best teams (and thus most worthy of at-large tourney bids). BUT! For those unsatisfied with the status quo, a change is needed from the current criteria the committee uses.

    That prompted a post from KJ at the Only Colors, who has two main points which make one thought: Tempo-free stats are useful evaluation tools because it's still all about wins and losses.

    End with Ken Pomeroy. He actually started a lot of this discourse because of an earlier question and answer, but follows it all with some excellent points about what should frame future bracketing decisions.

    Will the NCAA read it all and take notes? Possibly. We can only hope.

    Mike Miller's also on Twitter, usually talkin' hoops. Click here for more.

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  • 14
    Jan
    2010
    10:57pm, EST

    Gonzaga has Big Dance dream

    Here's the dream scenario for Gonzaga fans: playing an NCAA tournament game in Spokane.

    Then again, it could be a reality.

    Jim Prisching / AP
    Could Demetri Goodson and Gonzaga snag an NCAA tourney game in Spokane?


    At least Bud Withers from the Seattle Times thinks so. (Maybe he's reading BRACKETVille!) He says the Zags must meet three criteria to nab an opening weekend spot at Spokane Arena.

    First, those opening-round games have to be hosted by staff other than that school's. Check. Washington State is the official host for the Spokane sub-regional.

    Second, the hopeful school can't have played more than three games in that arena in the current season. Check. Gonzaga will have played one, against Oklahoma.

    And the third? Performance. That's where it gets tough.

    Given that the Zags (13-3) have already played every non-conference game except one – a Feb. 6 trip to Memphis – most of that is now out of their hands.

    They must hope that teams like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Cincinnati remain impressive (to bolster the résumé) and that teams like Washington State and Oklahoma somehow find their way into the tournament (for more résumé boosting.)

    Still, even if all that happens, the hardest part is hoping other teams don't move into that No. 4 spot. Teams get de-facto home games during the Big Dance – Villanova rode that into last year's Final Four – but Gonzaga must post a fat record to get that kind of treatment from the seeding committee.

    But hey, the Zags faithful can hope, right?

    To follow Mike Miller on Twitter, click here.

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  • 24
    Dec
    2009
    10:07pm, EST

    Sign up for Bracketology 101

    Wanna become a bracketologist? Joe Lunardi can teach you how.

    But you better hurry. ESPN's resident expert only teaches 20 students per section (for $249), and you'll be done just before March Madness begins.

    Of course, you may fulfill all of these objectives – understanding how everything applies to team selection and seeding process and "common misconceptions behind the bracket" – but there's one thing to remember: Unless you're trying to get a job as a bracketologist, you want to learn how to pick the winners, not predict the bracket.

    How else will you win that NCAA pool?

    (H/T: Ballin' Is a Habit)

    Mike Miller is on Twitter (@BeyndArcMMiller) and follows @BracketguyDave for all his bracketing needs.

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  • 7
    Jul
    2009
    1:01am, EDT

    Best-ever ACC coach? Go to the bracket!

    Love the bracket.

    Check that. Love THE bracket. You know, the ultimate way to categorize and argue anything and everything? Love it.

    Lowercase is the original, the NCAA tournament. Uppercase is for everything else, much like the guys at "The Final Four of Everything" figured out. Best action movie? Seed 'em and throw 'em in a bracket. Most overrated candy bar? Bracket 'em.

    It's the best way to have a little bit of March extend into summer without actually having games to focus on. (Or so I think. You might have other stuff to do.)

    Still, the best brackets usually involve sports. Dunno if it's the argumentative aspect or the natural tendency to match up sports topics and see how it all comes out, but sports remains the go-to.

    Cue the guys at Buster Sports.

    Their ACC basketball coaches bracket began today (hat tip: Tar Heel Fan), with 32 of the ACC's top coaches paired off. For the next few weeks, they'll match up guys like Bill Foster vs. Rick Barnes and decide which coach wins. (Click here to see who didn't make the cut.)

    Every coach gets a mini-bio and a bit on strengths and weaknesses, some of which are kinda surprising. Who knew Roy Williams (in 6 seasons) already amassed more ACC wins than Jimmy Valvano did in 10 seasons? (To say nothing of two national titles; spread the love Roy!)

    The opening matchup – Mike Krzyzewski vs. Frank Haith – was a no-brainer, as will most of the other 1 vs. 8 and 2 vs. 7 matchups.

    It'll get interesting around July 22 when all of the first-round matchups are over and the average coaches are out of the way. (Seems strange to see guys like Haith or Dino Gaudio on there, but I can live with it.) And – presumably – when Williams matches up with Dean Smith in the Final Four, who wins that one? Six seasons of dominance vs. 36 years of continued excellence?

    OK, that showdown should go to the Dean. Coach K vs. Dean is another story …

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  • 19
    Mar
    2009
    1:09am, EDT

    Can the Heels really run to a title? Yes

    Nobody's perfect.

    Keep that in mind when checking your NCAA tournament brackets the next few week. When you shake your head over missing that upset "you knew would happen" don't fret. When that 12 seed makes a run to the Sweet 16, just keep this in mind.

    The odds of picking a perfect bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1.

    Yes, 9 quintillion to 1. No, I did not make up that word. Chew on that when pondering if Western Kentucky can make another run to the Sweet 16.

    After all , those upsets come at any time. Even last year, when all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four, we had a wild first round that featured a slew of upsets. Davidson, K-State and the entire Tampa, Fla., pod were Madness at its peak.

    This season seems like more of the same. The first four days should provide a slew of upsets, while the better teams emerge as true contenders after the Sweet 16.

    And who are those contenders and which teams are headed for upsets? Here's my bracket (big upsets are bolded).

    East Region
    First-round winners: Pitt, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Xavier, VCU, Villanova, Texas and Duke. The Cowboys' win against Tennessee should be one of the better opening games. I also succumbed to the trendy VCU over UCLA pick. May regret that.

    Sweet 16 teams: Pitt, Florida State, 'Nova, Duke. Straight chalk…

    Until the regional semifinals. Villanova upending Duke should be a great showcase of guard-heavy teams that can both shoot the 3. And call me crazy, but I like the 'Noles to stun Pitt. They're really long and athletic, with a superb scorer in Toney Douglas. Not sure DeJuan Blair can stay out of foul trouble.

    After all of that, the Wildcats should be in the Final Four. There's the surprise team for the last weekend.

    South Region
    First-round winners: Carolina, Butler, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Temple, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma. Two true upsets, though if Chester Frazier were healthy, I woulda taken the Illini.

    Sweet 16 teams: Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Clemson. The Tigers are stumbling into the tournament, but I don't like the Sooners. I think 'Cuse would've beaten them in the next round, so I took a chance and knocked 'em out early.

    North Carolina should outrun Gonzaga – and I mean outrun; this game may hit triple digits – and Syracuse will outshoot Clemson. A UNC-'Cuse regional final could be awfully entertaining. A healthy-enough Ty Lawson outplays Jonny Flynn. Randomly enough, Arizona State is more likely to reach the final. I don't buy it.

    Midwest Region
    First-round winners
    : Louisville, Ohio State, Arizona, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, USC, Michigan State. Utah should be miffed about playing the Wildcats. Not many teams have anyone that can match Luke Nevill in the post, but Arizona's Jordan Hill is one of them. I'll be sweating out the N.D. State-Kansas game, too.

    Sweet 16 teams: Louisville, Wake, Kansas, Michigan State. Kansas edges the Mountaineers, while Wake wins the battle of NBA prospects against Arizona.

    This was a brutal region, but Louisville should be able to handle the competition, including Michigan State in the final. There's a reason the Cards are favored by the log5 method and multiple hoops pundits around the Web. They're good. Sparty gets this close to a Final Four in Detroit.

    West Region
    First-round games
    : UConn, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis. Tagging Utah State to beat Marquette is a stretch, but I don;'t mind picking a team that's won 30 games. Having the Bulldogs beat 4 seed Washington is a bigger stretch.

    Sweet 16 teams: UConn, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis. Call it the "brutal defense" group.

    UConn and Memphis will both be tested in the semis, but defense should win out. Same with the final, where Memphis advances past UConn. The Tigers are one of the few teams with a more efficient defense than the Huskies.

    Final Four: North Carolina should be able to overwhelm Villanova. The Heels won't be caught flat in the Final Four again. Last year's loss to Kansas must still sting this group. I'm guessing Wayne Ellington will be due for a big game. Rick Pitino's beaten John Calipari once before in the Final Four, an 81-74 Kentucky win over UMass in 1996. I think his Cards beat Calipari's Tigers in a game that could be in the 50s.

    Champion: North Carolina. When in doubt, pick the most talented team. This didn't work in 2006 with UConn, but was true in 2005 for the Heels. The last three champions, Florida, Florida and Kansas) featured balanced scoring, a high scoring margin and hit at least 50 percent of its field-goal attempts. That also sums up UNC.

    The major concern is the Heels' defense, which wasn't the case for any of the last five champions. All of 'em could play defense. But in a year where all the top defensive teams can struggle to score points, something's gotta give. I'm going with the Heels.

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  • 18
    Mar
    2009
    6:37pm, EDT

    Obama's bracket a lot like yours (and mine)

    President Obama isn't much different from me, and a good number of other hoops fans – at least when it comes to filling out his NCAA tournament bracket. 

    Obama, a dedicated hoops fan and former player, picked a few first-round upsets but stuck with the chalk, advancing three No. 1 seeds and a 2 seed to the Final Four.

    Compare his picks with users in our tournament challenge. Only 1 or 2 games are different. And most users are going to have 2 or 3 top seeds in their Final Fours. It's a given. In that sense, he's a man of the people.

    Personal note: When I post my bracket later tonight, it'll contain six of Obama's Elite Eight, and the same title-game matchup. Doubt this makes me presidential material though...

    His pick to win? North Carolina (he also picked UNC last year).

    When every bracket pool is closed Thursday, I'd guess that Carolina will be the pick to win it all in more brackets around the country than any other team. It's good news when the president can predict what the country thinks (at least a during March Madness).

    The Heels (28-4) do have plenty to like. Vegas installed them as the early favorite, while Obama says their "experience and balance" is hard to overlook.  Then again, Ty Lawson's nagging toe injury is an issue.

    And, there's the pressure factor. When the president calls you out, that probably makes your stomach clinch into a little ball.

    "Now, for all the Tar Heels who are watching, I picked you last year — you let me down," Obama said. "This year, don't embarrass me in front of the nation, all right? I'm counting on you. I still got those sneakers you guys gave me."

    The good news for Carolina is it gets to play right down the road in Greensboro, N.C., for the opening weekend. UNC has never lost a first- or second-round game in Greensboro. After that, perhaps Lawson's toe will be a little bit better. One doesn't want to disappoint the president.

    Obama made his picks during a televised segment Wednesday on ESPN. It was no surprise to see him cool and collected. (Especially with Andy Katz's random questions.)

    He knew which teams have been playing well, which have been struggling and – like anyone who's ever filled out a bracket – clearly struggled with some picks. Doesn't everyone second-guess themselves on something like this?

    Of course, not everyone agreed with his picks – or that he even took the time to fill out a bracket.

    There's no pleasing everyone. I'd be mad if he didn't fill out a bracket. How else would he be plugged in to what the nation is focused on this week?

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  • 25
    Feb
    2009
    10:43pm, EST

    UNC, UConn or take the other 64?

    Moments after Pitt's loss to Providence Tuesday, my buddy Marty calls.

    "If you had to pick one team, right now, to win the NCAA tournament, who would it be?"

    I think about it, then settle on North Carolina. Without seeing any matchups, I'll stick with their offense.

    "OK," he says, clearly ready for that answer. "If I took Carolina and UConn and gave you the other 64 teams, would you take that bet?"

    Good question.

    In a season where No. 1 keeps changing, the Heels (24-3) and Huskies (25-2) are probably the two teams most people will settle on when it comes time to fill out a bracket. They're both loaded with future pros, feature coaches who've won it all before and have been Top 5 teams all season. Plus, there's the name recognition.

    But does that make it a smart bet? Both teams are dealing with key players out for the season (Marcus Ginyard and Jerome Dyson, respectively). Carolina's defense is flawed, while UConn isn't a dynamic offensive team.

    Take the field? It's looking that way.

    That leaves Pitt, Oklahoma, Louisville, Memphis, Duke and Michigan State, among others. And those are just the top seeds. Teams like Kansas, Missouri, Gonzaga, ASU, UCLA, Villanova and Marquette could easily make the Final Four. Someone like Purdue or Arizona could catch fire at the right time. Who's to say Steph Curry and Davidson don't do the same?

    Losses in February aren't the end. No one's invincible.

    More and more it's shaping up to be like 2000 (when top seed Michigan State outclassed No. 5 Florida, No. 8 Wisconsin and No. 8 UNC for the title) or 2006 (No. 3 Florida wins out over No. 2 UCLA, No. 4 LSU and No. 11 George Mason). The top seeds will be popular picks in March, but … those doubts remain.

    Take the field? I think I will.

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Mike_Miller

I am the NFL and college basketball editor at NBCSports.com, based in Redmond, Wash. After an internship in 2000, I returned as a full-time employee in 2003. Since then, I've been involved in our Olympics and World Cup coverage as well. Consider me your typical sports fan, who's passionate about his favorite teams and sports and always willing to discuss/argue a point of view.

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