Final Four teams never lack for talent, and this year's no exception. Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina and Villanova all feature deep, balanced roster sprinkled with future NBA players.

The coaches read like a who's who in college hoops. Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo, Roy Williams and Jay Wright all have won national coach of the year awards. Combined, they have 16 Final Four berths and four NCAA tournament titles.

But the real driving force behind these teams is at the point. Kalin Lucas, Ty Lawson, A.J. Price and Scottie Reynolds comprise four of the game's best floor generals. They score, pass, defend (to varying degrees) and are all touted as true team leaders.

Even better? They've been at their best in the Big Dance.

Lawson made like Willis Reed against LSU, shaking off a bum toe to score 21 of his 23 points after halftime in what's been the Tar Heels' biggest scare of the tournament. Price has been the Huskies' leading scorer in the tournament; his 20 points per game is nearly 6 points better than his season average. Lucas was clutch against defending champ Kansas, scoring seven points in the final 49 seconds.

And Reynolds? Well, no one's hit a bigger shot in March than the Villanova's guard game-winner against Pitt. It's already being touted as a classic March Madness moment.

Here's a closer look at each player's strengths, weaknesses and what it means for the Final Four.

Ty Lawson, North Carolina
It seems the only thing capable of slowing the 5-11, 195-pound junior is a toe injury. Nothing else has worked this year. The ACC player of the year notched career highs in points (16.3), assists (6.5), steals (2.0) and had a career-low in turnovers (1.8).

Jerry Broome/AP

Ty Lawson

Part of it is because Lawson improved his shooting. He hits 54 percent of his field-goal attempts and nearly 49 percent from 3-point range. His speed has always made him tough to guard, but his improved shooting makes it even tougher.

"Ty Lawson is a great college point guard," said Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel before the Sooners were trounced by UNC in the Elite Eight. "I don't know how that will translate to the pros, but especially when he's doing now this year, and especially when he's been healthy over the past few months."

Even with that irritating injury – he jammed the big toe on his right foot near the end of the season and missed the ACC tournament and UNC's NCAA tourney opener as a result – Lawson hasn't missed a beat in the Big Dance. He's averaging 20.3 ppg (1.43 PPWS for tempo free fans) and has a 10-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, unheard of for a point guard during the March pressure cooker.

Part of it's because Lawson has a wealth of talent around him – the Heels feature nine McDonald's All-Americans on the roster – but also because he's comfortable as a team leader. Before, he'd just play.

"When I came to college I wasn't much of a talker on the court," Lawson told the Winston-Salem Journal. "I just try to lead off example, but now I'm talking to the other players."

If North Carolina (32-4) expects to claim its fifth NCAA crown, it needs Lawson to continue his impressive performance against Villanova on Saturday. The guard-heavy Wildcats rotate different defensive stoppers on opposing point guards, which puts most of the pressure on Lawson's shoulders.

Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
Lawson's counterpart Saturday also can play fast (ask Pitt), but he's more known for his hot-or-cold tendencies. As a freshman, he could go from a 0-point, 7-turnover game to a 40-point performance the next. He was a little more consistent as a sophomore, while his junior season marked career-lows in turnovers.

Chris Mcgrath/Getty

Scottie Reynolds

Still, don't think Reynolds is gun shy. He'll still do whatever he thinks is best.

"He gets a little out of control, and it's going to look bad," coach Jay Wright told a teleconference on Monday. "But most of the time he's making plays that people say, 'Wow'.

"He's making a lot of plays that other people are afraid to make. And he's got a great inner confidence. He really is a special kid. He never ceases to amaze me."

Reynolds averages 15.2 points a game, but his 1.13 PPWS is more in line with that of volume scorers like Allen Iverson. Sure, he'll still score 40 (like against Seton Hall in Jan.) or he'll finish with 2 points while playing 38 minutes in a loss to Louisville.

Not that Wright or Reynolds' teammates care. They trust the 6-2, 190-pound guard to do big things and make the big plays.

"I can get a little crazy out there sometimes. But it's all for the right reasons. I'm trying to make a play, get us going. It might not always work out, but it's always for the right reason," Reynolds told the Philadelphia Daily News after the Pitt game.

"When I hugged coach Wright afterward, he said, 'Your teammates respect you 100 percent. They're 100 percent behind you.' My freshman and sophomore seasons, I don't know if they respected me, as a man and as a basketball player, as much as they do now."

Kalin Lucas, Michigan State
That philosophy also sums up Lucas, the Spartans' 6-foot, 180-pound blur. The Big Ten player of the year leads the team in points per game (14.6) and assists (4.6), though his scoring has dipped slightly in the NCAA tournament.

Andy Lyons/Getty

Kalin Lucas

Not that Lucas minds. As teams have keyed on him, center Goran Suton and guards Travis Walton and Durrell Summers have thrived. All three have boosted their scoring in the last four games.

"It's kind of fun to see somebody box-and-one (a player), and somebody else scores 18," coach Tom Izzo said before playing Kansas. "That's the kind of team we have."

Yet it's still a team that runs through Lucas.

Lucas hits just 39 percent of his field-goal attempts -- his 1.04 PPWS is the lowest among the four point guards -- but he also takes care of the ball better than most point guards. His turnover rate (15.6) is right behind Lawson's, and far better than Reynolds or Price.

He hit the big shots against Kansas and was instrumental in breaking down the Louisville defensive pressure in the Elite Eight. Without his ball-handling skills, the Spartans (30-6) are probably headed home instead of just down the road to Detroit and the Final Four.

"He's a big-time player," Spartans senior Travis Walton said of Lucas. "He wants the ball in his hands. He showed that to you all last year when he made big plays against Pittsburgh. When he plays another big-time guard, Sherron Collins, he wants to kind of prove himself to the nation. [Friday], I think he took it personal."

A.J. Price, Connecticut
It's been an eventful career for the Huskies' 6-2, 182-pound senior. He's dealt with a life-threatening brain aneurysm, a season-long suspension for his role in the theft of laptop computers from a campus dorm, and a wrenching ACL injury in last year's NCAA tournament.

Chris Carlson/AP

A.J. Price

Yet Price has thrived through it all. He led UConn in scoring and assists this season. He burned Texas A&M for 27 points in a second-round rout and dished 7 assists in a Sweet 16 win against Purdue.

If the Huskies need a bucket, Price is their guy. He'll either hit the shot or find the open man.

"I think his ability to create for them is very important, whether that's for himself, with 3s or pull-ups or drives to the basket, or it is for the other guys, kickouts for other shots or post moves or dumps," said Purdue coach Matt Painter.

"A.J. Price is one of the best points in the country."

He'll need to be on Saturday. The Spartans will likely use senior Travis Walton, a 6-2 senior who's a former Big Ten defensive player of the year, to guard Price. They'll want to limit Price's open looks at the basket and force him to take bad shots. He's not an efficient scorer – he makes 41.6 percent of his field-goal attempts, but at just 1.10 PPWS – but can heat up quickly, and he knows it.

"I'm playing with confidence right now," Price told the Hartford Courant earlier in the tournament. "And that's just coming with our swagger, a certain swagger that we talk about as a team. It starts with the point guard. It trickles down."

John Calipari compiled some ridiculous numbers the last four years at Memphis: 137 victories; 61 consecutive conference victories; 4 regular-season titles; 4 conference tournament titles.

Among non-power leagues, it's a run worthy of Jerry Tarkanian's heyday at UNLV. Calipari established himself as the outsider making life uncomfortable for the big boys in the BCS conferences.

But for Kentucky fans, here are the numbers that matter most if Coach Cal does sign on in now that Coach Cal has signed on in Lexington.

Tom Uhlman/AP

John Calipari

0 – Years spent coaching in a BCS conference.

1 -- Final Fours during Calipari's 9-year Memphis tenure. This is good or bad, depending on your point of view. It's more than Kentucky's had since 1999, but short of expectations for a school that's won at least 33 games the last four years.

2 – Five-star prospects likely to follow Calipari to UK. DeMarcus Cousins and Xavier Henry are committed to Memphis, but both would presumably want to stick with Calipari. Another star recruit, John Wall, may settle on Kentucky when everything settles.

3 – Runs to the Elite Eight since 2006. No coach has been more often in that span.

4 – Top 10 recruiting classes at Memphis. According to Scout.com, the Tigers overall ranks since 2005 were 6, 25, 4, 6 and No. 1 for 2009. Every year resulted in a more touted class than Kentucky.

5 – Double-digit loss seasons. Three of those came in Calipari's first three years at UMass, while the most recent was a 22-16 campaign at Memphis in 2004-05. The Tigers reached the NIT semifinals that season.

6 – 30-win seasons. Since '91, he's had two at UMass and four at Memphis. That's one more than Kentucky's had in the last 20 years.

7 – NBA players drafted while at Memphis.

9 – Regular-season and conference tournament championships won.

11 – NCAA tournament appearances in 17 seasons as a head coach.

13 – NCAA tournament wins since 2006. Only UCLA has more.

15 (of 18) – Four-year Memphis players who've graduated. That number could grow this season, with Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier and Chance McGrady on track to graduate. If the Tigers don't go pro early, they usually get their degree. UMass graduated nearly 80 percent of its players during Calipari's tenure.

The last one is interesting. Memphis is perceived as a basketball factory, but that's a good graduation rate for guys who don't jump to the pros. It drops among black players (44 percent), but that's because of the guys in the NBA. It's not a shining example of academic excellence, but consider that Memphis had a zero graduation rate and missed the NCAA tournament four straight seasons before he arrived in 2000.

And if you're Kentucky, a school that just fired Billy Gillispie because he wasn't "the right fit," it's important to consider. Calipari is beloved in Memphis because he's won games, established himself as a part of the community and given the city a team to be proud of.

That's what Big Blue Nation wants: A winner and a coach who loves being in Lexington.  Sounds like Calipari fits the bill.

Michigan State's impressive win against Louisville gives Tom Izzo a chance at the ultimate prize: Coaching at Kentucky.

OK, there's a little sarcasm in there.

Izzo's going to be focused beating Connecticut and trying to win a second NCA tournament title. But rest assured you'll hear Izzo's name mentioned as possibly the next coach in Lexington more than once this week.

Billy Gillispie's ouster in Lexington has the rumor mill in full swing. Nearly every big-name coach – except for Billy Donovan – seems to be a candidate. Izzo, Villanova's Jay Wright, Pitt's Jamie Dixon, Texas' Rick Barnes and Memphis' John Calipari are chief among them.

It makes sense. If you're a hoops coach, few jobs are better than Kentucky. In terms of tradition, fan base and resources, it's tough to match the 'Cats. North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas, Duke, maybe Indiana. That's the short list.

Any time one of those positions opens up, the game's best coaches are going to be floated as possible replacements.

It even affects coaches like Rick Pitino. He's re-built Louisville into a powerhouse, yet his name is being floated as the next possible coach at Arizona. If you're thinking that Arizona is a lateral move for Pitino, you're probably right. But it doesn't prevent all the chatter (though Pitino is a master at not addressing rumors; others could take tips).

If it seems disingenuous to be talking about Izzo or Wright in Kentucky – two coaches who are still vying for a title – too bad. College hoops has been all about business for some time. If a coach can't prepare his team and cope with rumors at the same time, he's probably not gonna make it in Lexington.

Besides, Izzo hasn't exactly shot down any Kentucky rumors. Check out this quote:

"I don't think there's a guy on this planet that would ever say he's not going anywhere, not doing anything,'' Izzo said during a Midwest Regional press conference. "I don't think there's anybody on this planet that would ever say, 'I'm here to stay. I'm this. I'm that.' I don't think me, you or anyone else. So I would never do that because I think it would be insulting to you and me.''

Izzo's already being touted as the ideal Kentucky hire. Rick Pitino said last week that "there's no one better than Tom Izzo in our game."

Spartans fans are a little miffed right now. Why would Izzo leave a program he's taken to five Final Fours since 1999? Well, he probably wouldn't, but it's complicated.

This story from Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press is a good example. Izzo isn't likely to leave East Lansing, but he'd like potential recruits to know he's good enough to be Kentucky's prime candidate. And if there's ever a time when not denying rumors can help recruiting, this is it.

Izzo's never lacked for top talent, but it sounds like he's never had an easy time convincing them to come to East Lansing. Rosenberg uses two local players as an example:

[Izzo] recruited Detroit's DeShawn Sims hard. Sims went to Michigan, which had not been relevant on the national scene for years. Izzo recruited Cleveland's Delvon Roe like crazy, and Roe clearly loved Michigan State more than any other school, and he ultimately signed with the Spartans -- but I think Izzo felt that landing Roe should have been easier.

Fair enough. Roy Williams usually had the same complaint while at Kansas, and doesn't have any trouble stocking North Carolina with McDonald's All-Americans. The Heels have nine on their roster. (Bill Self has plenty of NBA-caliber players at Kansas, so read into that what you will.)

Bottom line: Coaches like Izzo and Wright – who says he's happy at Villanova – will never get to fully enjoy a Final Four week when a prime program like Kentucky has an opening.

But don't feel sorry for them. They're smart enough to turn rumors to their advantage, whether it's added exposure to recruits or more money from their current school. It's all part of the game.

If you could design the perfect finish to an NCAA tournament game, it'd probably feature Tyus Edney – or Danny Ainge, depending on your generation – making a mad dash the length of the floor, or Bryce Drew and Valparaiso, winning off an in-bounds play that had a little trickery.

Or, it could have a little of both. Just like Villanova's classic 78-76 victory against No. 1 Pittsburgh in the East Regional final.

Brian Snyder/Reuters

Villanova celebrates Scottie Reynolds' game-winning basket.

It's only fair that a game with 15 lead changes – six in the last six minutes – would end with a dramatic flair. To recap:

Pitt's Levance Fields hit two free throws, tying the game at 76-76 with 5.5 seconds remaining. After a timeout, Villanova's Reggie Redding inbounded the ball to Dante Cunningham, who immediately dished it to Scottie Reynolds, coming around Cunningham's side, much like Drew did against Ole Miss in 1998. Reynolds, a la Edney, then dribbled through the Pitt defense and into the lane where he put up an off-balance shot just in front of Pitt's Gilbert Brown that rattled home just before time expired).

Just like that (well, actually after the officials determined there was half a second left, which allowed Fields to launch a 70-foot heave that missed), a great game became a classic because of the finish and the stakes involved.

"It's an instinct play. You've got to know how much time is on the clock," Reynolds said. "In that situation, you have four dribbles and a shot. That's five seconds. All that goes in your head. That's why we practice that every day in practice so we can make an instinct play. We did that," Reynolds said. "It worked tonight. Only has to work once."

Once was enough. Now, the Wildcats (30-7) are headed to their first Final Four since winning it all in 1985. The Panthers (31-5), after a season in which they were perhaps the NCAA's most consistently good team and reached No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in school history, are headed home.

"A moment where it felt like we had it done," Pitt's DeJuan Blair said. "And then it was anybody's ball game."

It was like most of the great moments in NCAA tournament history - steadfast thinking with a little bit of luck. No doubt it'll get replayed again and again, every March.

The regional finals have featured good games the last few years, like Georgetown's rally against UNC in 2007 and in 2006 when George Mason stunned UConn.

The 2005 Elite Eight also comes to mind. Michigan State beat Kentucky in double OT and Louisville's rally against West Virginia were both great to watch.

But Illinois' remarkable OT comeback against Arizona – down 15 with four minutes to play – was the best NCAA tournament game of the decade. It featured two dominant teams, both of which were worthy of the Final Four, playing superb basketball.

Sounds a lot like Saturday. Great teams, great finish, great game. Maybe even the best this decade.

Whoa, we're to this point again? Already?

Didn't we just do this dance with Billy Donovan and a handful of other coaches two years ago? How did Billy Gillispie wear out his welcome so fast in Lexington?

Kentucky has reportedly fired its men's basketball coach. Can things really be this bad in Kentucky?

Well, no … and yes.

The yes is obvious. Kentucky – the winningest program in NCAA history with perhaps the most rabid fanbase – missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991. It didn't even make the NIT semifinals. Gillispie's 40-27 record just doesn't cut it when you're talking about the house that Rupp built.

The on-court performance doesn't cover Gillispie's other issues. He's prickly. The players don't like him. He hasn't endeared himself to the fan base. Former Louisville Courier-Journal writer and current ESPN.com column Pat Forde covers all these topics and more in this story, which I encourage you to read.

Most every Kentucky fan already knows the details, but one thing sticks out to me: Gillispie wasn't the right guy because Kentucky rushed into this hire. After being turned down by Donovan and other coaches, the school turned to Gillispie because it didn't want to appear desperate.

So a job that should've taken months took weeks. As Forde writes:

"Never mind that former athletic director C.M. Newton took more than two months and at least a couple of rejections (Lute Olson and P.J. Carlesimo) in 1989 before getting around to hiring a guy named Rick Pitino. This time around, UK hurried a critical decision".

Coaches like Kansas' Bill Self have preached patience, noting that even Mike Krzyewski wasn't too popular in his first two years at Duke. It's a fair point. It's rare that a program gets righted overnight, and even then it takes a little bit of luck.

Gillispie's contract contains a reported $6 million buyout clause. In an economy like this, that's no small consideration.

Also, Kentucky isn't struggling. True, this isn't the level of winning the Bluegrass State is accustomed to, but it's not NJIT. Gillispie says Kentucky's on the verge of being a great team. Should the school pay big bucks to mess with that? Because if Gillispie is fired, a big-name replacement won't be cheap. (Fans on A Sea of Blue seem to be divided between Donovan and Memphis' John  Calipari.)

And there's the rub.

Replacing Gillispie will be costly and may cost Kentucky a coach who could be good. Or it could stem the 'Cats playing in the NIT next season and get them back on the Final Four track.

I hope the decisin made by Kentucky A.D. Mitch Barnhart and school president Lee Todd is the right one. We'd all rather be spending our time reading about Kentucky's basketball exploits, not its coaching drama.

By nearly any measure, Memphis had one of the nation's top defenses.

Key word: had. Missouri ran by that defense, and then some.

The Tigers led the country in defensive field goal percentage (.366), eFG % (41.4) and overall defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com. They rack up steals and blocks at a rate only a handful of teams surpasses and win by an average of 17.1 points per game.

Ronald Martinez/Getty

DeMarre Carroll

But perhaps the best illustration of how much Missouri torched the Tigers on Thursday night is this: Memphis allows about 57 points a game, yet lost 102-91. It doesn't matter if you prefer tempo-free stats or rely on the traditional ones, that score is worth a double take.

Nobody had put up more than 79 points on Memphis all season – and that was an overtime loss. No team had broken 90 since 2007.

"We kind of got punched in the mouth right from the beginning of the game," Memphis coach John Calipari said. "They broke us down defensively like we break people down. They beat us at our own game."

The loss in itself wasn't a huge surprise. Vegas tabbed the No. 2 Tigers 4.5-point favorites before the game, with an over/under of 141.

Even if Missouri (31-6) doesn't beat Connecticut on Saturday in the West Regional final, it should relish the fact that it posted the most impressive offensive performance of the tournament – against perhaps the best defensive team. No small feat.

The Tigers – Missouri, that is – hit 53 percent of their shots (eFG% 58.1) and had just 12 turnovers on 83 possessions (TO% of 14.5). That's a ridiculous number against a rec-league defense, let alone Memphis.

For comparison's sake, the average number of possessions in a D-I game is 66.5. The D-I average for turnover percentage is 20.4. Missouri had 16 more possessions than average, yet had far fewer turnovers than you'd expect. Fewer turnovers than any Missouri fan should dare to hope for.

"I thought our defense was really good," Missouri coach Mike Anderson said. "It was disruptive. It's not necessarily taking the basketball. It's not feast or famine."

Missouri led 49-36 at half. At one point, the lead was 24 points. Sure, it shrunk to six with 2:14 left to play, but that was to be expected. What wasn't expected was the triple-digit result.

Beating Missouri – as UConn is about to find out – is easier said than done. Stopping the Tigers from running their way into the Final Four will be a formidable task.

Time to start a tradition. Isn't that what March is about?

Instead of me tossing more predictions out there for the Sweet 16, I'll turn to two tried and tested prognosticators: Las Vegas and Ken Pomeroy's computer.

Did this same thing last year; both outlets finished 7-1 (neither would bite on Davidson beating Wisconsin). This year, there isn't much difference between the two again. The point spreads are a little different, but they agree on six of the eight games, including all the No. 1 seeds (which makes sense -- every top seed has made it to the Elite Eight the last three years).

THURSDAY'S GAMES

No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Purdue
kenpom.com: UConn wins 68-63 (73 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: UConn by 7 points, over/under 134.5.

No. 1 Pitt vs. No. 4 Xavier
kenpom.com: Pitt wins 72-67 (68 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Pitt by 7 points, over/under 139.

No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 3 Missouri
kenpom.com: Memphis wins 70-66 (68 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Memphis by 4.5, over/under 141.

None of these are a surprise. The Huskies won their first two games by an average of 41 points, but Purdue should be able to keep things closer.

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Villanova
kenpom.com: Duke wins 75-72 (59 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Duke by 2, over/under 148.

Here's one where I'll disagree with both (though I know one reader will think I'm crazy). Villanova looked fabulous against UCLA last week, and has the guards to disrupt Duke's offense. Sure, the Wildcats will let teams hang around, but I just like their style. Plus, they're in my Final Four.

FRIDAY'S GAMES

No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 12 Arizona
kenpom.com: Louisville wins 74-66 (78 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Louisville by 9, over/under 136.

This is the biggest line of the 8 games, and the one kenpom.com computer is most certain about. I'll say this: Arizona has too many future NBA players on the roster to be that certain.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Gonzaga
kenpom.com: UNC wins 83-82 (56 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: UNC by 8.5, over/under 163.

Why the difference? The Zags are among the most efficient offensive and defensive teams remaining on kenpom's ratings. Essentially, the defense doesn't get enough credit. Vegas doesn't think much of the Zags, but they do think it'll be a track meet (163 total points?!)

No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Syracuse
kenpom.com: Syracuse wins 78-77 (52 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Oklahoma by 1, over/under 153.

You may as well flip a coin if a team's only favored by 1 point, which is what kenpom's done. Will anyone really be surprised if the Orange stop Blake Griffin's Sooners?

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas
kenpom.com: Kansas wins 70-69 (55 percent certainty).
Vegas odds: Michigan State by 2, over/under 138.

Another disagreement. Kenpom rates the Jayhawks as more efficient on offense and defense, and doesn't seem concerned that the Spartans already beat KU once this season. Really, it's a coin flip.

Happy watching.

When Tom Izzo's in the Sweet 16, he's usually the most accomplished coach in the field.

Michigan State's won an NCAA tournament title, been to four Final Fours and won 74 percent of its tournament games in Izzo's 14-year career, to say nothing of the five Big Ten titles and 333 overall wins in that span.

Michael Conroy/AP

Tom Izzo

Yet Izzo's gaudy 28-10 record in the big dance ranks fourth among coaches whose teams are in the Sweet 16.

Let that sink in.

A coach who wins nearly 3 of every 4 NCAA tournament games ranks behind three other guys who are in this year's second week. As if the field – which has all four 1, 2 and 3 seeds still playing for the first time – wasn't loaded enough, it also has perhaps the game's most accomplished coaches still in it.

Pick a game, any game. It'll have an elite coach on the sidelines.

Seven of the 16 have already won NCAA tournament titles. Six have been to multiple Final Fours. Ten are among the winningest active coaches. Four are already in the basketball Hall of Fame. All but three have been to the Sweet 16 before.

Check out their tournament résumés and regular-season records below. The first eight have all been to at least one Final Four. The next eight haven't.

Coach, school            Tourney win %  Record    Titles/FFs   Overall

Mike Krzyzewski, Duke      .772         71-21     3/10       833-273
Rick Pitino, Louisville        .755         37-12     1/5         551-196
Roy Williams, UNC            .739         51-18     1/6         590-138
Tom Izzo, MSU                 .737         28-10     1/4        333-136
Bill Self, Kansas               .727          24-9       1/1        376-144
John Calipari, Memphis    . 706          24-10     0/2        445-139
Jim Calhoun, UConn         .705          43-18     2/2        803-341
Jim Boeheim, Syracuse     .627          42-25     1/3        799-287

Coach, school               Tourney win %  Record    Best finish     Overall

Sean Miller, Xavier          .666             6-3     Elite Eight       120-46
Mike Anderson, Mizzou    .625             5-3     Sweet 16       153-75
Jamie Dixon, Pitt             .615            8-5      Sweet 16      162-44
Jay Wright, Villanova        .600            9-6     Elite Eight      298-175
Jeff Capel, Oklahoma       .600            3-2     Sweet 16      147-73
Matt Painter, Purdue         .570            4-3     Sweet 16      108-54
Mark Few, Gonzaga          .550          11-9    Sweet 16       264-65
Russ Pennell, Arizona       1.000          2-0     Sweet 16       21-13

Pennell's listed at the bottom here for two reasons: His poor overall record and that he's in his first season as a head coach, and an interim at that. That's usually enough to overmatch any coach (unless you're Steve Fisher).

Even more daunting for Pennell is that he's the only coach in the Midwest Region who hasn't won a title. If his Wildcats get past Pitino's Cardinals next, they'll face either Izzo's Spartans or Self's Jayhawks. To his credit, he doesn't sound intimidated.

"That's kinda neat," Pennell told the Arizona Daily Star. "That's a good story, isn't it? … Wow, they can coach and their teams are good."

That goes for every region, really. Consider the North Carolina-Gonzaga matchup.

It features the game's two most winningest active coaches, Williams and Few. Both have won over 80 percent of their career games, something only John Wooden, Clair Bee and Adolph Rupp have done among coaches with at least seasons of experience.

When Gonzaga prepped for UNC before a 2006 preseason NIT game, the two traded compliments, both about coaching styles and character.

"A lot of things we emulate at Gonzaga is what Roy Williams did at Kansas and is doing at Carolina," Few said then. "He's the best — he's a great recruiter, he's a great game coach and he does a great job because he does it ethically. He does it the right way."

The same kind of mutual respect is found in just about every matchup.

Jay Wright's Villanova team looks awfully similar to Krzyzewski's Duke squad. Both are guard-heavy and rely on perimeter scoring and tough on-ball defense.

But at this point, Wright can only hope to one day match Coach K's accomplishments.

"It's an honor to coach against him, it really is," Wright told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "He's one of the all-time greats. He's a guy who really respects our profession. He's very, very respectful of other coaches. As great as he is, he treats all the younger coaches — treats everybody — with respect."

Of course, some of the compliments could disappear after the Sweet 16 games.

Memphis' Calipari and UConn's Calhoun have traded barbs for years, dating back to when Calipari was at Massachusetts. If Memphis plays Louisville in the Final Four, don't expect Calipari and Pitino to exchange a hug at halfcourt, either. A Duke-UNC Final Four would dredge up the recent Coach K-Williams feud.

That's part of what drives these coaches to succeed and it's probably part of the reasons their teams are still playing. They've set themselves up to be successful, which shows in their NCAA tournament records and overall results.

And the guy whose team ends up winning a loaded tourney this year's? He'll be the toast of his peers.

Wyoming center Adam Waddell made the dunk of the year last week. Think I'm joking? How many other dunks result in a national TV appearance?

Surely you've seen it by now. During the Cowboys' CBI game against Northeastern, Waddel stole the ball at the top of the key, dribbled full speed and took off from just outside the circle for a dunk.

Except he forgot to let go.

He did a full flip and nearly landed on his head. But he popped right up and ran off, laughing. When my buddy Marty called the next day to explain it, he couldn't stop laughing trying to describe the dunk.

Turns out a dunk like that can get you on the TODAY show. Enjoy the 15 minutes, Adam. You earned it.

Finding this year's Stephen Curry is easy.

The player capable of single-handedly carrying his team deep into the NCAA tournament and wowing onlookers also happens to be the favorite for player of the year and the slam-dunk pick for No. 1 in this year's NBA draft.

I mean, did you see Blake Griffin's breakaway dunk against Michigan? Zach Novak is going to hear about that for the rest of his life.

Griffin, along with Louisville's Terrence Williams and North Carolina's Wayne Ellington, is one of three players who should have a superb Sweet 16.

Zach Long/AP

Blake Griffin

After two games, Griffin leads all players with 61 points and is second with 30 rebounds. He's hit 25-of-32 field goal attempts, good for a ridiculous 1.77 points per weighted shot.

"He's a great player," Michigan's C.J. Lee said. "He showed it today, he's been showing it all season."

With No. 3 Syracuse looming, Griffin figures to continue his remarkable March. The Orange (28-9) feature an efficient, but undersized defense, made up mostly of guards and swingmen. A pair of forwards, 6-9 Arinze Onuaku and 6-9 Rich Jackson will have their hands full.

Syracuse could very well shoot past the Sooners, but it'll only be if it offsets another huge game from Griffin.

Terrence Williams

Matt Sullivan/Reuters

Terrence Willliams

Williams may be the game's best all-around player. The Cardinals' 6-6 swingman averages 12.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2.4 steals an outing. Some games he's likely to have more assists than shots, which is just fine for the Cards (30-5), who rely on their pressing defense to beat teams.

But lately, Williams has stepped it up a notch – especially on offense.

He's not an efficient scorer. He hits about 47 percent of his shots, and about 38 percent from beyond the arc. Yet in tournament wins against Morehead State and Siena, Williams was remarkable, totaling 36 points, 24 rebounds and 7 assists and 7-of-13 from 3-point land. His 1.51 PPWS during the two wins was a nearly twice as efficient as he's been on the season.

"He definitely stepped up," said teammate Earl Clark. "I expect that from him. He's our leader and he's a great player, one of the best forwards in the country."

Williams should be just as good in the Sweet 16 against No. 12 Arizona (21-13).

The Wildcats are the worst defensive team remaining in the tournament, according to kenpom.com. They allow opponents to shoot nearly 50 percent from the field, don't force many turnovers and rebound poorly. Their biggest threat – center Jordan Hill – will be occupied by Louisville's Samardo Samuels or Clark, leaving Williams free to do his thing.

If NBA scouts are smart, they'll take note of how Williams plays against Arizona's Chase Budinger, long seen as a better NBA prospect. Williams will be the guy leading Louisville into the Elite Eight, while Budinger floats around the 3-point line. There's a reason Cards coach Rick Pitino relies on Williams for the big plays.

"Only he has that type of ability to hear a voice, perform it, get it, and do it," Pitino says.

Wayne Ellington

AP

Wayne Ellington

The Heels' 6-4 shooting guard has quietly put together a solid March. He's averaging 19.8 points in the last six games (up from 15.4), including a 23-point performance against LSU in the second round. He's hitting 58 percent of his shots and 51 percent from beyond the arc, good for 1.34 PPWS.

He's long had one of the game's sweetest shooting strokes, but struggled with his game earlier this season.

"He's a better all-around player, first of all," Roy Williams told the Winston-Salem Journal. "Early in the year he wasn't shooting the ball very well. I told him to take the ball to the basket, defend people and rebound. There was a stretch in ACC play that he was our second-leading rebounder. He was getting more rebounds than Ed Davis, Deon Thompson and Danny.

"I think he gained some confidence in that knowing that he's a very good player and his shot doesn't have to go in. That makes it a lot more pleasant when it does."

Ellington should have loads of confidence Friday against Gonzaga.

The Zags are 15^th in adjusted defensive efficiency on kenpom.com, but are average when it comes to defending the 3, yielding 34.5 percent from beyond the arc. Opponents score nearly 36 percent of their points from 3s against the Zags, meaning Ellington will be one of the Heels' main options.

Other players who rose to the occasion in the early rounds like Memphis' Roburt Sallie (35 points against Cal-State Northridge), UConn's A.J. Price (47 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists in two wins) or Kansas' Cole Aldrich (a triple-double vs. Dayton) aren't as likely to keep thriving because their matchups or situations aren't as favorable.

All three should have solid games, but don't expect anything amazing.

It's déjà vu all over again.

Last year featured a Sweet 16 filled with powerhouse teams who piled up wins like never before. All four 1 seeds, three 2 seeds and three 3 seeds were in the 2007 Sweet 16.

But this year's ridiculous Sweet 16 – all four 1, 2 and 3 seeds advanced, along with two 4s and a 5 – created the predictable "The sky is falling in Cinderellas's head!" responses. Check it out.

• A bracket where Arizona is the Cinderella is like Bill Gates playing the lead in "Slumdog Millionaire."
• No Cinderellas? Where's the drama?
• Maybe we're entering the era of chalk.

But the most sobering post was from Dan Shanoff on the Sporting Blog.

If this continues, the NCAA tournament risks a fate worse than parity: Predictability.

(Shudders.)

Fear not, writes John Gasaway.

The BP writer is always good for a reality check. He correctly says that even if we discount the manic 2006 tourney – you know, George Mason, Duke and UConn lose in the Sweet 16 and no top seeds in the Final Four? – we've seen this type of tourney behavior before. It was called the early '90s.

Indeed, 1993 featured three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 in the Final Four. In '91, all four 1s and 2s were in the Sweet 16. Same in '95. Shoot, for good measure, all four 1s, 2s and 3 No. 3 seeds were in the '89 Sweet 16.

Gasaway, along with SI.com's Luke Winn, think the potential Cinderellas merely were a little unlikely. Missouri, Michigan State, Louisville, Pitt and Gonzaga were all this close to not making the Sweet 16.

Besides, no underdogs means the Sweet 16 games should be awesome. Other news outlets also took this approach, which means maybe the glass isn't half empty.

I mean, what's not to like about Kansas vs. Michigan State, Memphis vs. Missouri, Carolina vs. Gonzaga, Duke vs. Villanova and Syracuse vs. Oklahoma? The NBA rosters that'll be on the floor for Louisville vs. Arizona makes me wish it were already Friday.

Sure, Midnight came a little early for Cinderella this season. And yes, I'm sure your bracket suffered a bit as a result. (Mine did.) But if you picked Arizona State or Florida State to make a deep run in the tourney, well, that's your problem.

Me, I'm going to go enjoy the games.

What happened, ACC?

You used to rule the 64-team NCAA tournament. Your six titles since the tourney expanded in 1985 is more than any other league. You placed at least one school in the Final Four 17 times between 1985 and 2005. You sent at least two teams to the Sweet 16 for 15 straight years.

And according to seeding, your teams performed better than anyone else between 1985 and 2005, accorinding to performance against seed expectation, or PASE.

The last four tournaments have been a different story. You're still placing loads of teams in the tournament, but those teams aren't winning like they should.

Only one Final Four berth since 2006. Only four teams – in three tournaments – to reach the Sweet 16. No champs. Ouch.

Year    Teams    Record    Expected wins
2006      4           6-4           7.3
2007      7           7-7           10.33
2008      4           6-4           7.83
2009      7           5-5*         10.68
(*through Saturday; expected wins courtesy Dan Hanner)

Marc Serota/Getty

Wake Forest's Chas McFarland, left, and L.D. Williams

Friday's putrid 0-4 mark – capped by Wake Forest's loss to No. 13 seed Cleveland State – was just the latest debacle.

"Black Sunday" still reigns as one of the bleakest days in ACC hoops history. The shockwaves of No. 1 seed UNC and No. 2 seed Duke both losing second-round NCAA tourney games reverberated throughout the 1979 tourney.

Yet Friday's 0-3 day isn't far behind because every loss was in the first-round. And those are games the ACC should win. No. 4 Wake lost. No. 5 Florida State lost. No. 7 Boston College lost.

The only team that's exceeded expectations thus far is No. 10 Maryland. The Terps' first-round win against Cal offset Clemson's loss to No. 10 seed Michigan on Thursday. The Heels and Devils also won games – that they were supposed to win.

(Side note that doesn't boost the ACC's karma: Maryland guard Greivis Vasquez popped off before the Terps' game against Memphis, saying the Tigers would "probably win all of their games outside of the league and have a losing record in the league. The ACC is too tough." Memphis won Saturday's game 89-70 as fans chanted "A-C-C-, A-C-C, A-C-C!")

Yes, it's the Big Dance, a time when upsets happen. Other conferences have struggled, but nearly every league hit expected win totals last year (the SEC and Pac-10 were just one win shy).

This year, the Big 12 and Pac-10 are both just one win shy of expected win totals, while the Big Ten just needs 3 more wins to hit their mark (the Big East needs 10 more).

Perhaps it's time re-evaluate our ACC perceptions. Perhaps the league just isn't as good as it used to be.

Put it this way: Even if Duke and North Carolina both make the Final Four, the ACC will still be at least one win short of PASE.

Just how long can a league coast on its reputation anyway?

Western Kentucky provided Thursday's only real upset in the NCAA tournament, but the Hilltoppers were far from the only storyline.

With Memphis' early drama, Jim Calhoun's absence and American's Garrison Carr trying to do a Stephen Curry impersonation, there wasn't a reason to turn off the TV, or the online streaming.

Here's a rundown of the Big Dance's opening day, and a snippet at what's to come Friday.

UConn can without Calhoun
Jim Calhoun spent the Huskies' opening-round game against Chattanooga in the hospital instead of on the sidelines – he's reportedly suffering from acute stress – but it didn't matter. The West's top seed rolled to a 103-47 victory, the third-largest win in NCAA tournament history.

The scary part? The Huskies believe it could have been worse.

"We would've been more fired up if Coach was here," said senior guard A.J. Price. "Chattanooga got off easy without Coach here."

Yikes. Maybe we should be concerned for the welfare of Texas A&M, which disposed of BYU for the second-straight year. After all, every time Calhoun's missed UConn's tourney opener, it's won the NCAA title. Who's going to stop the Huskies this time?

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty

Western Kentucky's Sergio Kerusch

Top this
Western Kentucky's Sweet 16 run in 2008 was sparked by an opening-game buzzer-beater. This year, there was no need. The Hilltoppers dominated Illinois from the start.

OK, so they let a 68-51 lead dwindle in the final minute. But the 76-72 victory was well worth the wait – it was the last game to end Thursday. If you stayed awake, hoping to see an upset, this was it.

"It was exciting, but we were scared for a minute," said Western Kentucky's Sergio Kerusch. "It was such a nail-biter at the end."

No Brotherly Love for Cinderella
Underdogs VCU and American fell just short of pulling off the day's big upsets in Philadelphia.

No. 11 VCU staged a late rally against No. 6 UCLA and even had a chance for the game-winner. But senior guard Eric Maynor (shades of 2007!) couldn't get off a clean shot over the Bruins' Darren Collison in a 65-64 loss. "Everybody knew he was going to take that last shot," Collison said. "I think that's how they beat Duke."

Hey, Collison hasn't been to the last three Final Fours for nothing…

No. 14 American was in even better shape against No. 3 Villanova. The Eagles led by as much as 14 points, mostly from the smooth shooting of guard Garrison Carr before the Wildcats – no doubt bolstered by playing in Philly – used a 19-2 run to pull off the 80-67 win.

It didn't properly represent just how well the Eagles played, too. They couldn't miss.

"That first half was amazing," said Villanova's Dante Cunningham. "Every shot that went up was good."

Who else does Memphis have riding the pine?
The greatest game any Memphis player ever had in the NCAA tournament didn't come from Tyreke Evans. It wasn't Derrick Rose last year. It was little used Robert Sallie who torched Cal-State Northridge for 35 points.

It came just in time for the Tigers, too. They trailed throughout against the 15 seed and would've been the fifth No. 2 seed to lose its opening game since the tourney expanded in 19985.

Sallie entered the game averaging 4.5 points, yet hit 12-of-17 shots, including 10-of-15 from beyond the arc. Who knew?

"Coach said keep shooting," said Sallie, whose previous career high was 13. "None of my teammates would ever expect me to score 35 points. I never made 10 3-pointers before."

Sallie's hot shooting may have to carry over for the Tigers, who face No. 10 Maryland on Saturday. The Terps held Cal – the nation's top 3-point shooting team – to 7-of-24 from beyond the arc in an 84-71 win.

Gonzaga breathes easy – finally
The No. 4 Bulldogs used to be March's darling. But opening-round losses the last two seasons created some doubts in Spokane. A 77-64 win against Akron ended all that. Not that it was easy. Akron led by six points in the second half.

 "Oh, it was a weight off the chest," said forward Josh Heytvelt, who led all scorers with 22 points. "They came out throwing blows and had us rattled."

Now the Zags, who have won 19 of their last 20, turn to new Cinderella Western Kentucky in the second round. It could be quite the mid-major showdown.

When playing the no-respect card works
Washington's Quincy Pondexter anger over being omitted from the Pac-10's all-conference team got the best of him during the league tourney. Not so during a 71-58 win against No. 13 seed Mississippi State. He blitzed the Bulldogs for a season-high 23 points.

"I thought I should have at least been honorable mention because of the part I play for this team, so it really had me down [in the league tourney]," Pondexter told the Seattle Times.

Having Jarvis Varnardo, the nation's best shot blocker, in foul trouble helped too.

"It was very noticeable," Pondexter said. "I didn't have to alter my shots."

Saturday's second-round matchup against Purdue won't feature a shot blocker like Varnardo, but there could be just as much physical play. The No. 5 seed's win against Northern Iowa came with a few bumps and bruises.

Guard E'Twaun Moore and swingman Robbie Hummel needed to ice their sore joints after winning what seemed "like a Big Ten game."

No sweat
Top seed North Carolina and No. 2 seeds Duke and Oklahoma breezed to first-round wins, while Texas' victory against 10 seed Minnesota wasn't really as close as the score indicated, thanks to eight 3-pointers from guard A.J. Abrams.

Friday will have more of the same, to a point.

No. 1 seeds Louisville and Pittsburgh should crush Morehead State and East Tennessee State in their games. It's also tough to see Robert Morris giving No. 2 Michigan State much of a battle.

After that, it's wide open.

Both of the 8-9 games should go down to the wire. Tennessee and Oklahoma State could produce a triple-digit game. Both teams would rather focus on offense. Ohio State faces mid-major Siena, but there's nothing mid about the Saints. They have four players from last year's 23-11 team that upset Vandy in the first round of the Big Dance.

Two other morning games feature 3 seeds Kansas and Syracuse, both of which play schools that have racked up wins this season. No. 14 North Dakota State will fill the seats in Minneapolis for their game against the defending champion Jayhawks. Not sure what Miami will be like for the Orange's matchup against Stephen F. Austin, but I do know they won't see an open shot. The No. 14 Lumberjacks defend the 3 better than any other NCAA squad.

Also in the morning? No. 6 Marquette plays No. 11 Utah State. Only Memphis has more wins than the Aggies (30-4), which can't be good news for the Eagles. They don't have starting point guard Dominic James and have lost four of the last five.

The next batch of games features two more 6-11 matchups and a 3 vs. 14. Temple fell short as a double-digit seed last year; will it be more of the same against favored Arizona State? West Virginia could have issues against No. 11 Dayton. The Flyers have beaten Marquette and Xavier.

No. 3 Missouri is playing in its first Big Dance since 2003. Stumbling against Cornell isn't an option.

Evening games feature No. 5 Utah vs. No. 12 Arizona (Utes are a popular pick to lose), No. 7 B.C. against No. 10 USC (bad news Eagles: seven seeds are 1-2 thus far) and No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Portland State.

Should you skip heading out Friday night to catch the late games? Depends on who's in your Final Four.

No. 4 Wake Forest was trashed in the ACC tourney by Maryland. The Deacons play Cleveland State, a team that beat Syracuse earlier this season. Could be some stress. Covered the Ohio State-Siena and MSU-Robert Morris games, which leaves No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Wisconsin.

The Badgers are always tough to play, but are just 3-3 in the last three NCAA tournaments. The 'Noles have one NCAA tourney berth and just one NCAA tourney win since 1994. Toss a coin on that one.

It hasn't been an easy year for Jim Calhoun. He's dealt with injuries to a key player, re-instatement drama and the whole press conference brouhaha.

Yet, in an odd way, Connecticut just got a good omen to open the NCAA tournament.

Calhoun missed the Huskies' opener vs. Chattanooga for an as-yet undisclosed medical reason. For a coach who's battled cancer multiple times, that kind of news is no joke. It doesn't sound serious, though he will be kept in the hospital overnight for tests and observation.

"Fortunately, those tests have all gone well, and I am feeling much better," said Calhoun, who added he hoped to be released from the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania on Friday.

Besides, the Huskies didn't miss him Thursday. They were crushingcrushed the Mocs.

It's the 21^st time Calhoun's missed a game due to an illness (poor guy's had everything from cancer to chest pain to the flu) and the third time he's missed UConn's NCAA tourney opener. And that's the good news.

Every time he's missed the NCAA tourney opener, the Huskies have won it all.

As far as silver linings go, Husky fans should love that.

Nobody's perfect.

Keep that in mind when checking your NCAA tournament brackets the next few week. When you shake your head over missing that upset "you knew would happen" don't fret. When that 12 seed makes a run to the Sweet 16, just keep this in mind.

The odds of picking a perfect bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1.

Yes, 9 quintillion to 1. No, I did not make up that word. Chew on that when pondering if Western Kentucky can make another run to the Sweet 16.

After all , those upsets come at any time. Even last year, when all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four, we had a wild first round that featured a slew of upsets. Davidson, K-State and the entire Tampa, Fla., pod were Madness at its peak.

This season seems like more of the same. The first four days should provide a slew of upsets, while the better teams emerge as true contenders after the Sweet 16.

And who are those contenders and which teams are headed for upsets? Here's my bracket (big upsets are bolded).

East Region
First-round winners: Pitt, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Xavier, VCU, Villanova, Texas and Duke. The Cowboys' win against Tennessee should be one of the better opening games. I also succumbed to the trendy VCU over UCLA pick. May regret that.

Sweet 16 teams: Pitt, Florida State, 'Nova, Duke. Straight chalk…

Until the regional semifinals. Villanova upending Duke should be a great showcase of guard-heavy teams that can both shoot the 3. And call me crazy, but I like the 'Noles to stun Pitt. They're really long and athletic, with a superb scorer in Toney Douglas. Not sure DeJuan Blair can stay out of foul trouble.

After all of that, the Wildcats should be in the Final Four. There's the surprise team for the last weekend.

South Region
First-round winners: Carolina, Butler, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Temple, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma. Two true upsets, though if Chester Frazier were healthy, I woulda taken the Illini.

Sweet 16 teams: Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Clemson. The Tigers are stumbling into the tournament, but I don't like the Sooners. I think 'Cuse would've beaten them in the next round, so I took a chance and knocked 'em out early.

North Carolina should outrun Gonzaga – and I mean outrun; this game may hit triple digits – and Syracuse will outshoot Clemson. A UNC-'Cuse regional final could be awfully entertaining. A healthy-enough Ty Lawson outplays Jonny Flynn. Randomly enough, Arizona State is more likely to reach the final. I don't buy it.

Midwest Region
First-round winners: Louisville, Ohio State, Arizona, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, USC, Michigan State. Utah should be miffed about playing the Wildcats. Not many teams have anyone that can match Luke Nevill in the post, but Arizona's Jordan Hill is one of them. I'll be sweating out the N.D. State-Kansas game, too.

Sweet 16 teams: Louisville, Wake, Kansas, Michigan State. Kansas edges the Mountaineers, while Wake wins the battle of NBA prospects against Arizona.

This was a brutal region, but Louisville should be able to handle the competition, including Michigan State in the final. There's a reason the Cards are favored by the log5 method and multiple hoops pundits around the Web. They're good. Sparty gets this close to a Final Four in Detroit.

West Region
First-round games: UConn, BYU, Purdue, Mississippi State, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis. Tagging Utah State to beat Marquette is a stretch, but I don;'t mind picking a team that's won 30 games. Having the Bulldogs beat 4 seed Washington is a bigger stretch.

Sweet 16 teams: UConn, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis. Call it the "brutal defense" group.

UConn and Memphis will both be tested in the semis, but defense should win out. Same with the final, where Memphis advances past UConn. The Tigers are one of the few teams with a more efficient defense than the Huskies.

Final Four: North Carolina should be able to overwhelm Villanova. The Heels won't be caught flat in the Final Four again. Last year's loss to Kansas must still sting this group. I'm guessing Wayne Ellington will be due for a big game. Rick Pitino's beaten John Calipari once before in the Final Four, an 81-74 Kentucky win over UMass in 1996. I think his Cards beat Calipari's Tigers in a game that could be in the 50s.

Champion: North Carolina. When in doubt, pick the most talented team. This didn't work in 2006 with UConn, but was true in 2005 for the Heels. The last three champions, Florida, Florida and Kansas) featured balanced scoring, a high scoring margin and hit at least 50 percent of its field-goal attempts. That also sums up UNC.

The major concern is the Heels' defense, which wasn't the case for any of the last five champions. All of 'em could play defense. But in a year where all the top defensive teams can struggle to score points, something's gotta give. I'm going with the Heels.

President Obama isn't much different from me, and a good number of other hoops fans – at least when it comes to filling out his NCAA tournament bracket. 

Obama, a dedicated hoops fan and former player, picked a few first-round upsets but stuck with the chalk, advancing three No. 1 seeds and a 2 seed to the Final Four.

Compare his picks with users in our tournament challenge. Only 1 or 2 games are different. And most users are going to have 2 or 3 top seeds in their Final Fours. It's a given. In that sense, he's a man of the people.

Personal note: When I post my bracket later tonight, it'll contain six of Obama's Elite Eight, and the same title-game matchup. Doubt this makes me presidential material though...

His pick to win? North Carolina (he also picked UNC last year).

When every bracket pool is closed Thursday, I'd guess that Carolina will be the pick to win it all in more brackets around the country than any other team. It's good news when the president can predict what the country thinks (at least a during March Madness).

The Heels (28-4) do have plenty to like. Vegas installed them as the early favorite, while Obama says their "experience and balance" is hard to overlook.  Then again, Ty Lawson's nagging toe injury is an issue.

And, there's the pressure factor. When the president calls you out, that probably makes your stomach clinch into a little ball.

"Now, for all the Tar Heels who are watching, I picked you last year — you let me down," Obama said. "This year, don't embarrass me in front of the nation, all right? I'm counting on you. I still got those sneakers you guys gave me."

The good news for Carolina is it gets to play right down the road in Greensboro, N.C., for the opening weekend. UNC has never lost a first- or second-round game in Greensboro. After that, perhaps Lawson's toe will be a little bit better. One doesn't want to disappoint the president.

Obama made his picks during a televised segment Wednesday on ESPN. It was no surprise to see him cool and collected. (Especially with Andy Katz's random questions.)

He knew which teams have been playing well, which have been struggling and – like anyone who's ever filled out a bracket – clearly struggled with some picks. Doesn't everyone second-guess themselves on something like this?

Of course, not everyone agreed with his picks – or that he even took the time to fill out a bracket.

There's no pleasing everyone. I'd be mad if he didn't fill out a bracket. How else would he be plugged in to what the nation is focused on this week?

So, you've spent the past two days pouring over every bit of info related to the NCAA tournament. You've scoured the Web sites, the blogs, the newspapers (or not), listened to the radio, watch the TV and talked with friends about your bracket.

And now, here you are, still agonizing over which 5 seed will lose first, if North Carolina can win with an ailing Ty Lawson, and just which mid-major is the most likely to make a run.

It's a bear, right? Here's some help.

Before you do anything else, read this analysis from Basketball Prospectus. It covers just about everything you should know regarded seed performance and the best indicators or tournament success.

True, it doesn't what teams fit those indicators in this year's tournament. But you're not doing anything else in the next few days, right? OK, you have to work. Me too.

In the meantime, take an hour or so and sift through the following links. They cover everything you need to know.

I'll open with our stuff from NBCSports.com. We've added stuff since Sunday night.

If you're just starting, here are 10 who could win. But cross-reference those with who's hot and who's not. It'll save some time. These first-round games to watch cover mostly the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups. More than any other year, the 1 and 2 seeds should be wary of their second-round games. Finally, don't overlook these darkhorses.

Off to ESPN. Dana O'Neil's tidbits column is a nice read, including a bit on the hottest ticket for the opening weekend (Dayton). Pat Forde has the Coen Brothers on the brain, but in a good way. The regional analysis (East, Midwest, South and West) isn't must different than anywhere else, though.

Playing ESPN's tournament challenge is SOP for people my age, but I like the new feature for this year: Importing a celebrity's bracket. Not sure it's much use, but it's fun. It's much more useful than the bracketcaster feature. I simulated the entire tournament, with some random results.

Chattanooga stunned UConn in the first round, and then had BYU win the West Region. And the East Region was even more strange. Pitt was stunned in the first round by ETSU, which then narrowly lost to No. 13 seed Portland State in the Sweet 16. The Vikings then reached the Final Four. George Mason, eat your heart out.

Sporting News also used Accuscore to predict the tournament, but didn't have that kind of result. It did indicate that Kansas was the most vulnerable 3 seed, while Washington is the 4 seed most likely to lose in the first round. Food for thought.

SI.com's Luke Winn is probably my favorite reporter out there. His 50 thoughts doesn't disappoint. Of note are Nos. 37-40, which cover the stats that matter. Read up. Also, features on each region, East, Midwest, South and West.

CBSSportsline features the best online product in March: Watching the NCAA tournament streamed live. For those stuck at work, it's a Godsend. Also worth a look? CBS is using "Bracket Science" to help users make picks. It weighs performances from past seeds and the likelihood of upsets and how often you should pick those upsets.

Then again, you could ignore that and just read this story on "anatomy of an upset." It's a little easier to read, both in layout and easily digestible facts.

FOXSports.com mostly uses video to preview the tournament, which is nice, but uninteresting to me. I'd rather find some text pieces, like their regional stuff from the East, South, Midwest, West. Right after that, I'm entering their game. A million bucks to the winner, in this economy? Wow.

Ah, fun with Digger Phelps. A Pitt-Xavier Regional final would be something to see.

Yahoo's hoops experts had their picks up early. Most everyone else is waiting for Wednesday. Also cool on Yahoo are their early plotlines (In case you didn't know, Morehead State's first berth since 1984 was the longest stint for any school in the 65-team not making its first appearance. Phil Simms loves it.) and the tournament, from A to Z.

But really, the most important thing to know before you fill out a bracket is this link. Efficiency margin is killer for the eventual champ.                                  

Another year, another Selection Sunday. Now the real fun begins.

I'll have more on the brackets Monday, including a look at what the rest of the Internet is doing. For now, I'm do a short blog post on our features and analysis for the men's NCAA tournament.

Our hoops expert, Ken Davis, thinks top overall seed Louisville is the team to beat. He likes their defense. Can't say I disagree. The Midwest Region is brutal, but the Cards have the goods to come out of it.

Other regional picks: North Carolina, Memphis and Duke.

Some multimedia features: A guide to players to watch, and the top 30 moments in NCAA tournament history.

And, finally, if you haven't signed up for our tournament game, get to it. Read up on some tips first, though.

After four days of upsets and bubble busting, Sunday may be the most dramatic NCAA tournament prelude in years. Who's in? Who's out? Who are the 1s? How will it all shake out when the brackets are announced at 6 p.m. ET?

This one would stump Nostradamus.

Start with the 1 seeds. Pitt, UConn and Oklahoma all lost conference tournament openers. North Carolina and Michigan State each won one game, then lost in the semis. Among Top 10 teams in the AP poll and the RPI, only Louisville and Memphis won regular-season and league tourney titles. Duke could claim the ACC crown on Sunday.

The Bracket Matrix, a Web site that tracks 56 bracket projections among various new media and bloggers, has Pitt, North Carolina and Louisville as the top 3 seeds, with UConn and Michigan State right behind. The average seed for those five teams on 56 brackets? No. 1. Yeesh. Here's how they all stack up. (Numbers through Saturday, with an update coming on Sunday. Conference records are from the regular season.)

                                   Conf. 
Team       Record     W-L   RPI rank  SOS rank
Pitt          28-4       15-3      1           8

UNC         28-4       13-3      3           27

Louisville   28-5       16-2      7           16

UConn      27-4       15-3      6           26

Mich. St    26-6       16-3      4            7

OU           27-5       13-3      5           22

Memphis    31-3      18-0       8          49

Duke         27-6      11-5      2           3

Other factors to consider: Louisville swept the Big East regular-season and tourney titles. Memphis did the same in Conference USA. Michigan State and North Carolina won regular-season crowns. (Duke can claim the ACC tourney title on Sunday.)

In head-to-head matchups: Pitt beat UConn twice; UConn thumped Louisville; UNC beat Michigan State and split withswept Duke.

Also important is UConn's record without guard Jerome Dyson, who suffered a season-ending injury. The Huskies are 4-3 without Dyson, which could play a seeding factor. 

Pitt, UNC and Louisville should be locks. The last spot should be a toss-up between UConn, MSU, though Duke and Memphis both could make strong arguments. Both have four wins vs. the RPI Top 25. The Huskies are 17-4 vs. the RPI Top 100, while the Spartans are 16-6. UConn's more consistent season probably gives it the edge for that final 1 seed.

As for that bubble, well, it's a mess.

The NCAA seeding committee awards 31 automatic bids, leaving 34 at-large berths available. By most reckonings, here are 29 teams that are at-large locks. They all have at least 21 wins and rank among the RPI's top 40. Also, they all average a nine seed or higher on the Bracket Matrix. Call it at-large by consensus, which isn't foolproof, but is darn close.

ACC – Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest

A-10 – Xavier

Big East – Connecticut, Marquette, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova

Big Ten – Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Big 12 – Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M

Horizon – Butler

Mountain West – BYU

Pac-10 – Arizona State, Cal, UCLA, Washington

SEC – LSU, Tennessee

After the ACC and Big Ten title games, at least two of these teams will earn automatic bids. If the Vols beat Mississippi State in the SEC title game, it'll open up another spot, which cuts it to 26 at-large locks.

That leaves about 20 teams vying for eight spots. In alphabetical order, they are:

                                    Conf. 
Team         Record     W-L   RPI rank  SOS rank
Arizona       19-13      9-9    63         32

Auburn        21-11     10-6     57         62

Baylor         19-14     5-11     55        14

B.C.            22-11     9-7     61        70

Creighton     26-7       14-4     41       110

Davidson      25-7       19-3     69       165

Dayton        26-7       11-5     27        84

Florida         23-10     9-7     52        91

Maryland      20-13      7-9      51       24

Michigan      19-13     9-9    42        9

Minnesota    21-10     9-9    40        35

N. Mexico     21-11     12-4     66        79

Penn St.       22-11     10-8     68       115

Providence    19-13     10-8     71        50

St. Mary's      24-6     10-4     47       156

San Diego St.  23-9     11-5     31       38

S. Carolina      21-9     10-6     58       96

Tulsa             23-10    12-4    56       118

UNLV             21-10     9-7     65        87

Wisconsin       18-12    10-8    44        17     

(These are records against D-I schools. The selection committee only considers D-I wins. Conference records are from the regular season.)

Of note: These schools are ranked anywhere from 27-69 in the RPI, with Davidson (69) as the lowest. Only Baylor and Maryland had losing conference records during the regular season.

Creighton and Dayton each have 26 wins. Only eight teams have won that many and been left out – but three (Stephen F. Austin, IUPUI and Robert Morris) were last year.

The Matrix likes: B.C., Wisconsin, Dayton, Michigan, Minnesota, San Diego State, Maryland and Creighton. The first four out? Penn State, Saint Mary's, Arizona and Florida.

And if it shakes out like this, it'll be a minor miracle. The selection committe will use more than just these factors to finalize the 65-team field. How many marquee wins did each team record? How well did teams play during the last 12 games? Did they have any losses against the dregs of the RPI?

Like I said, Nostradamus would have an easier time seeing this outcome.

Thursday wasn't kind to would-be No. 1 seeds. Pitt lost to West Virginia. Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma. And Syracuse outlasted UConn – in near-record fashion six overtimes.

The upsets created a flurry of discussion about each team's likelihood about grabbing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and, if the Panthers, Sooners and Huskies were no longer worthy of a top spot, which teams should take their place.

It's all speculation and chatter, of course. There are still three days of conference tournament games to be played, which will affect the No. 1 seeds and the NCAA tournament overall. But it only focuses on the elite teams, which is like only talking about the Yankees and Red Sox as the baseball playoff approach.

The more important speculation deals with bubble teams. There are 15-20 teams trying to cement at-large berths, which affects Big Dance far more than what happens to the top teams.

Still…the reason everyone focuses on those No. 1 teams is because those are the teams most likely to win it all. Simply put, they're the best. 

Since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, No. 1 seeds have won the title 14 out of 24 years. That's nearly 60 percent.

And it's not just titles. Top seeds win 80 percent of the time (328-82 since '85), compared to No. 2 seeds (231-92, 71.5 percent), No. 3 seeds (175-93, 65.3) and No. 4 (146-95, 60.6).

Year    1 seed   2 seed  3 seed   4 seed
2008     19-3*     7-4     10-4     3-4
2007     17-3*     12-4     8-4     5-4
2006     11-4      10-4     9-3*    7-4
2005     15-3*     7-4      5-4      6-4
2004     9-4       12-3*   10-4     7-4
2003     13-4       9-4     13-3*   3-4
2002     13-3*     11-4     6-4     5-4
2001     16-3*     8-4      8-4     4-4
2000     10-3*     6-4      6-4     7-4
1999     17-3*     5-4      7-4     6-4
1998     11-4      12-3*   10-4    5-4
1997     15-4       7-4      3-4     11-3*
1996     13-3*     12-4     7-4     8-4
1995     13-3*     15-4     3-4     8-4
1994     13-3*     12-4    10-4    6-4
1993     18-3*     8-4      7-4     5-4
1992     13-3*    10-4     5-4      8-4
1991     13-4     10-3*    10-4    7-4
1990     12-3*     5-4     7-4      10-4
1989     11-4     11-4     13-3*    6-4
1988     14-4     10-4      4-4      5-4
1987     16-3     11-4      4-4      2-4
1986     13-4     10-3*     3-4     5-4
1985     13-4     11-4       7-4     4-4

Overall  328-82  231-92   175-93  146-95
*--won title

Being a No. 1 seed matters because it's a major indicator of NCAA tournament success. Other factors – winning margin, FG percentage, points scored, etc – matter too, but the top seed is a surefire way ensure success. Usually. Unless you're DePaul.

Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie likes to say he has the best job in the world. He might be right.

The Wildcats' tradition, facilities and devoted fan base is like few other programs in college hoops. They're the reason the state bleeds blue.

The flip side: It might be the toughest job in college hoops, too.

Kentucky closed the regular season with eight losses in its last 11 games, including a disheartening 90-85 home loss to SEC cellar dweller Georgia. Dana O'Neil captured the mood surrounding Gillispie and the program with a behind-the-scenes feature that showed a little of how tense things are right now.

UK (19-12) hasn't missed the NCAA tournament since 1992, the third-longest active streak. Unless the 'Cats make a deep run in the SEC tournament, that streak is going to end. And Wildcat Nation is livid.

UK officials will discuss Gillispie's job status after the season, which means he'll likely face post-game questions about his future in Lexington no matter how the 'Cats play this week. Nearly every area media outlet and fan site has an opinion on the coach, as you might expect. Some want Gillispie gone, others think he needs more time. (Links nod to A Sea of Blue.)

Even if one dissects the varying quotes made by Kentucky president Lee Todd and A.D. Mitch Barnhart, which the Louisville Courier-Journal's Eric Crawford does here, it's tough to get a bead on what is going to happen to Gillispie after the season.

He hasn't endeared himself to UK fans – both by not winning enough and by his sometimes brusque manner – but it's clear all of that could change. The 'Cats could start winning. An SEC tournament title wouldn't make every concern disappear, but it'd be a start.

Even if Kentucky does miss the Big Dance, it's hard to envision Gillispie being ousted after just two years on the job. Continuity is king in college hoops. Everyone needs time to build a program. Hiring and firing coaches is for the NBA, not a sport where recruiting is half of winning. Plus, there are financial concerns.

Kentucky isn't what it was under Adolph Rupp, Rick Pitino or even Tubby Smith. And two years isn't enough time fully to judge Gillispie.

Davidson's NCAA tournament hopes – along with every other bubble team -- took a hit Tuesday when Cleveland State stunned No. 16 Butler in the Horizon League championship game.

The Vikings' first Big Dance berth since 1986 -- when they upset No. 3 seed Indiana and St. Joe's for a spot in the Sweet 16 – came via a flurry of 3-pointers and timely defense, especially when Butler threw away the ball underneath the Vikings' basket in the final minute.

It was one of those finishes where Butler looked frazzled and Cleveland State was unfazed, much like an upset that opens the NCAA tournament. Hey, time to root for the underdog, right?

"It feels so good. I've waited four years, five years, it's so amazing, just to get this championship," said Cleveland State point guard Cedric Jackson. "It means the world to me. This team has stuck together day in and day out."

I guess this shouldn't be too surprising. Jackson's the guy who hit a 60-foot bomb to upend Syracuse back in December. It is March, after all.

As for the Stephen Curry lament, it eased a little bit. Who needs Curry when you can watch a guy capable of scoring 60 points in a game? (Nevermind that his odds of breaking 60 in the tourney are as good as DePaul winning the Big East).

Ben Woodside – Mr. 60 – hit the game winner against Oakland (Mich.) in the Summit League title game, sending the Bison to the NCAA tournament in their first season as a D-I school. They're the first school to pull off that feat since 1972.

Woodside's one of four four-year starters on ND State, which spent the previous four years finalizing its standing with the NCAA to be a D-I program. Imagine what this feels like for those seniors, Woodside, Brett Winkelman, Mike Nelson and Lucas Moormann. Did Hollywood write this ending?

On tap tonight
Two more automatic bids will be awarded to the winners of the Northeast Championship (No. 1 Robert Morris vs. No. 2 Mount Saint Mary's) and Big Sky Championship (No. 2 Portland State vs. No. 6 Montana State).

The Big 12, Pac-10, C-USA, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Big West and Southwestern Athletic all begin their tournaments today, while the second round of the Big East gets underway right … about … now. Nice batch of games, too. (Times ET)

Providence vs. DePaul, Noon
Marquette vs. St. John's, 2:30 p.m.
West Virginia vs. Notre Dame, 7 p.m.
Syracuse vs. Seton Hall, 9:30 p.m.

If DePaul pulls off another miracle, the Friars' NCAA hopes are toast. And it'll be interesting to see how Marquette plays against St. John's. The Eagles haven't been the same since losing Dominic James to an injury – though their schedule has been brutal.

Happy watching.

Bubble talk dominates Championship Week. Automatic bids and No. 1 seeds are right behind, leading up to Selection Sunday.

Where does that leave the other NCAA tournament teams?

A field of 65 schools leaves a lot of ground to cover. If it's not Florida's ebbing tourney hopes, it's Memphis' résumé for a top seed or Pitt and UNC jostling for the top spot.

Lost in the din are schools like Texas A&M or BYU. Both the Aggies and Cougars are at-large locks for the Big Dance, yet won't receive much attention if they don't win their conference tourney and end up as a 6, 7, 8 or 9 seed.

But they, like a handful of other schools, have quietly positioned themselves as teams capable of pulling off some March surprises of varying degrees. Here are six; the first three are Elite Eight level, the last three are good for a first-round upset.

Wake Forest
Almost two months ago no one would've considered Wake Forest (24-5) overlooked. The Demon Deacons were 16-0 and ranked No. 1 after victories against North Carolina and Clemson. But they lost four of their next six games, including head scratchers to Georgia Tech and N.C. State, two of the ACC's worst.

Nick Wass/AP

Jeff Teague

But it didn't last. Not with talent like Wake's. It closed with wins in six of its last seven games and snagged the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament. Our own Ken Davis thinks the Deacs will even win it.

It's a smart bet. Wake is a potent blend of instant offense and efficient defense. Honestly, Wake reminds me of Florida in 2006 when a group of underclassmen started off 16-0, stumbled in mid-season, then recovered to win its conference tournament and took advantage of an NCAA tournament field that featured a lot of good, but no great teams.

No, Wake doesn't have a Joakim Noah clone, but it does have James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu, two big men who run the floor as well as any post players in the country. (All 6-9 forwards should be so gifted.) Throw in one of the nation's deepest benches and Allen-Iverson clone Jeff Teague – a snubbed Jeff Teague, no less -- and the Deacs are a team poised for their first Final Four berth since 1962.

Caveat: Wake is sloppy with the ball. It ranks 211 in turnover percentage (equal to Colorado or Oregon). When you run like the Deacs, turnovers happen.

Gonzaga
Originally, I was going to highlight Michigan State. The Spartans (25-5) were blown out by Maryland and UNC earlier this season, but that was without Goran Suton. It coped with Raymar Morgan's mono and walking pneumonia, and Delvon Roe's injury woes. But now, the Spartans are a No. 1 seed in the BracketMatrix. Even if no one's talking about it, if you're a 1 seed, you're not overlooked.

That leaves the Zags.

Yes, the same Bulldogs that were humbled at home by Memphis last month and lost four of five in Dec. to mostly NCAA tournament teams (Portland State doesn't count). Those same Zags that just clinched their 11^th straight NCAA tournament berth by destroying bubblicious Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney finale.

Gonzaga's resplendent NBA talent – Austin Daye, Josh Heytvelt, Micah Downs among them – also isthe most maddening part of the Zags. NBA scouts rip Daye, Downs is inconsistent and Heytvelt, well… Why aren't they better? At 26-5, shouldn't they dominate opponents?

Oh wait. They have. Since that Memphis mashing, Gonzaga's won nine straight, the last seven by an average of 28.5 points. The Bulldogs sport a 17.6 scoring margin, one of the best indicators of NCAA tourney success. Kansas was tops in scoring margin last season; Florida was in 2007.

Caveat: Recent history. Overlook the Big Dance bumbles (Zags haven't won a tourney game since Adam Morrison), but losses to UConn, Utah, Arizona and Memphis were this year. Gonzaga's early round matchups will be crucial.

BYU
The Cougars (24-6) have been Top 25 mainstays of the RPI and kenpom.com nearly all season behind a 10-0 start and near-misses to Arizona State and Wake Forest. After losing three of four in January, BYU's won 9 of its last 10 and is among the favorites to win the MWC tourney this weekend (if Utah, New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State don't get there first…)

So why care? Three reasons: A big-time talent, excellent defense and a solid scoring margin.

Senior swingman Lee Cummard is among the nation's elite scorers and an underrated floor leader. Jimmy Fredette runs the offense, but Cummard (also underrated last season) is the engine. The Cougars' solid defense relies on forcing opponents into A bad shot. Just one. Even DeJuan Blair would have a hard time grabbing an offense rebound. As for foes, BYU's scoring margin of 13.3 ppg is right there with Duke.

Caveat: BYU stinks at offensive rebounds. For all their ability at limiting opponents' second chances, they don't get many.

New Mexico
The Lobos (21-10) were on John Gasaway's radar long ago because of their efficiency margin during MWC play. That is, New Mexico was better than the rest of the league at scoring more points per possession than it allowed. Yes, even better than BYU, which already received gushing praise from yours truly.

                       Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM

1.  New Mexico   64.1    1.12      0.96     +0.16

2.  BYU             68.5    1.10      0.95      +0.15

The Lobos' secret? They're unselfish (19^th in assists per made FG), hit their 3s (39.1 percent, 25^th overall) and take care of the ball. N.M. is 15-2 when committing fewer turnovers than their opponents.

Also, senior Tony Dandridge can ball. He's a volume scorer, but it's paid off during the Lobos' recent run of eight wins in their last nine games, which culminated in a shared MWC title. They'll be trouble for a team like LSU or Florida State in the first round.

Caveat: 15 of New Mexico's 21 wins came at home. The most impressive road win was last Saturday at Wyoming.

Texas A&M
A 14-1 start earned the Aggies some votes in the AP poll … then they lost three of nine and fell off the face of the Earth. (Or at least any projected bracket.) Yet, here they are, 23-8, riding a 6-game win streak with victories against Texas and Missouri. Thank the offense.

Behind Josh Carter's increased scoring (and sometimes deadly shooting), Donald Sloan's ballhandling (nearly 3-1 turnover-to-assist ratio) and the emergence of sophomore guard B.J. Holmes (10.1 ppg during that run), the Aggies have produced Carolina-like offensive efficiency – 81 points on 63 possessions vs. Texas; 87 on 66 possessions vs. Iowa State; 96 on 74 possessions vs. Missouri.

Because of early season wins against LSU and Arizona, the Aggies' RPI is better than their kenpom rating. As a result, they'll probably be a No. 8 seed and be poised to give any No. 1 seed all it can handle in the second-round.

Caveat: Defense. Winning that first-round game isn't going to be easy because A&M doesn't force turnovers, is terrible at defending the 3 and average at everything else.

Auburn
About 10 days ago, a co-worker (Auburn grad) asked if his Tigers had to win the SEC tournament to go dancing. "Without a doubt," I responded.

Hang on a tic…

Auburn (21-10) isn't an at-large lock, but it doesn't have to win the SEC tourney to go dancing, either. It closed with wins in eight of its last nine games, including a 69-53 thumping of LSU. Jeff Lebo's team is finally scaring opponents, and it's doing it with defense.

The Tigers' adjusted defensive efficiency is just as good as Pitt, Arizona State and Villanova, three teams eyeing Final Four runs. They're not exceptional in any one area, but don't suck at anything, either.

Having Korvotney Barber helps, too. The only player to average a double-double in SEC play this season, the 6-7 senior is a beast on the boards and a feared shot blocker. When he's clicking, so are the Tigers. They're 9-2 when he notches a double-double and 11-3 when he grabs at least 10 rebounds.

Caveat: They're not in yet. That's a big one.

My Sunday lament continues…

Davidson, last season's NCAA tournament Cinderella story, lost Sunday to College of Charleston in the Southern Conference tournament, putting a huge crimp in the Wildcats' Big Dance hopes.

At 26-7, the 'Cats could earn an at-large bid, but several factors are conspiring against them.

• Their RPI stinks. Say what you will about the RPI, but the seeding committee uses it as a way to measure teams. Entering Sunday's game, Davidson was 67^th according to Realtimerpi.com. That's behind other bubble teams like Penn State, Auburn, Maryland and Rhode Island.
• Davidson' most impressive win this season was Dec. 9 against West Virginia. After that, it's N.C. State. Yes, Curry's club played Oklahoma, Purdue, Duke and Butler, but didn't win any of those games. And in this case, losses mean more than who you played.
• Losing to the Citadel also hurts. Davidson played without Curry during the Feb. 18 loss, but it's unclear how the committee will take that into consideration.

Part of me wonders if the committee will find a spot for Davidson simply to get the nation's leading scorer – and one of its most well-known players – into the March spotlight. I know CBS would appreciate it.

Curry's scoring and Davidson's run to the Elite Eight impressed CBS so much last year that it gave the Wildcats the primo TV slot during the Elite Eight, using their matchup against Kansas for its lead-in for "60 Minutes" despite risk of an audience killing blowout. In all, 17.2 million people tuned in for that game, up significantly from the earlier rounds of games.

Watching Curry gun for the big upset again this year would no doubt attract viewers, both online and on TV. Elite shooters like Curry are a rare breed. I'd love to see him on the big stage again.

Why does any of this matter? Why fret over Curry's fate when a guy like Tennessee-Martin's Lester Hudson – the nation's second-leading scorer and perhaps its best all-around player – also won't be in the Big Dance?

OK, fine. Put Hudson in too. Put 'em both in. What can it hurt?

One of my most vivid March Madness memories revolves around offense. Insane amounts of offense.

It was 1988. Wyoming was 26-5, had everyone back from a Sweet 16 run the year before, including future NBA players in Fennis Dembo – he of the Sports Illustrated cover – and Eric Leckner. But the Cowboys were blitzed by 10^th-seeded Loyola Marymount in the first round of the NCAA tournament, 119-115 (still the second-most points ever scored by a losing team in the Big Dance).

Yes, those Lions, the team that spent the next two years trying to score 200 points in a game and led D-I in scoring in '88, '89 and 1990. The team that blitzed defending champ Michigan 149-115 in 1990. The kind of team we haven't seen since.

Which brings me to this season. Sadly, the current version of the Lions just missed on a chance to go dancing.

Radford upended Virginia Military Institute 108-94 in the Big South tournament championship on Saturday. If you want to see the runnin', gunnin' Keydets play again, pray that the NIT or CBI asks 'em to participate. School officials think they have a good chance at playing in the NIT.

VMI isn't Loyola Marymount. The Lions averaged at least 110 points per game during that three-year run, capped by an NCAA record 122.4 ppg in 1990. The best the Keydets have done is 100.9 ppg during the 2006-07 season. This season, their 93.8 average tops D-I.

It reinforces that no one's going to replicate Loyola Marymount, but doesn't mean VMI isn't just as entertaining.

The Keydets attempted 50 three-pointers. They forced 27 Radford turnovers. True, they're far from efficient on offense (92nd on kenpom.com's adjusted rating), but man can they gun it. More than 54 percent of their points come from 3s, which is five points higher than any other D-I team. They've surpassed 100 points nine times this season and 90 points 22 times.

If there's a time when VMI isn't going full-tilt, it isn't for long.

This isn't to belittle Radford. It features one of the country's best post players in Artsiom Parakhouski, a 6-foot-11 center from Belarus, who scored 26 points and grabbed 18 rebounds on Saturday.

But an NCAA tournament with high-scoring VMI would've been a blast. Guess those old memories will have to suffice.